Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 Wichita St. 97.2%   7   27 - 4 17 - 1 27 - 4 17 - 1 +13.1      +6.6 19 +6.6 19 61.8 284 +14.2 18 +18.7 1
27 Northern Iowa 100.0%   6   30 - 3 16 - 2 30 - 3 16 - 2 +12.1      +6.0 27 +6.0 27 54.0 348 +16.4 12 +14.4 2
72 Illinois St. 0.4%   20 - 12 11 - 7 20 - 12 11 - 7 +6.6      +3.3 72 +3.3 72 68.1 127 +5.6 89 +4.0 4
133 Evansville 0.0%   18 - 12 9 - 9 18 - 12 9 - 9 +2.1      +1.1 133 +1.1 133 68.3 123 +3.0 123 +1.3 5
136 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   17 - 13 8 - 10 17 - 13 8 - 10 +1.9      +0.9 136 +0.9 136 58.5 335 +2.9 125 -0.3 6
170 Indiana St. 0.0%   14 - 16 11 - 7 14 - 16 11 - 7 -0.5      -0.2 170 -0.2 170 72.0 50 -0.6 175 +5.1 3
226 Southern Illinois 0.0%   11 - 21 4 - 14 11 - 21 4 - 14 -3.3      -1.6 226 -1.6 226 61.9 281 -5.4 256 -6.5 9
242 Bradley 0.0%   8 - 24 3 - 15 8 - 24 3 - 15 -4.6      -2.3 242 -2.3 242 61.2 293 -6.9 288 -8.5 10
245 Drake 0.0%   8 - 22 6 - 12 8 - 22 6 - 12 -4.7      -2.4 245 -2.4 245 55.9 343 -5.5 260 -2.6 7
246 Missouri St. 0.0%   9 - 20 5 - 13 9 - 20 5 - 13 -4.8      -2.4 246 -2.4 246 60.4 308 -4.1 242 -4.4 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wichita St. 1.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 2.0 100.0
Illinois St. 3.0 100.0
Evansville 5.0 100.0
Loyola Chicago 6.0 100.0
Indiana St. 3.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 9.0 100.0
Bradley 10.0 100.0
Drake 7.0 100.0
Missouri St. 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wichita St. 17 - 1 100.0
Northern Iowa 16 - 2 100.0
Illinois St. 11 - 7 100.0
Evansville 9 - 9 100.0
Loyola Chicago 8 - 10 100.0
Indiana St. 11 - 7 100.0
Southern Illinois 4 - 14 100.0
Bradley 3 - 15 100.0
Drake 6 - 12 100.0
Missouri St. 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wichita St. 100.0% 100.0
Northern Iowa
Illinois St.
Evansville
Loyola Chicago
Indiana St.
Southern Illinois
Bradley
Drake
Missouri St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wichita St. 97.2% 0.0% 97.2% 7   0.0 0.7 8.4 16.4 17.9 25.3 16.5 9.2 2.5 0.3 2.8 97.2%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   1.2 14.8 31.3 30.0 17.3 4.6 0.9 0.0
Illinois St. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1 0.3 0.0 99.6 0.4%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wichita St. 97.2% 0.0% 97.2% 62.7% 23.1% 8.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 64.6% 26.2% 7.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Illinois St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 2.8 96.8 0.4
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 2.8 97.0 0.2
2nd Round 87.1% 1.3 12.9 46.9 40.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 43.6% 0.5 56.4 37.8 5.8
Elite Eight 15.4% 0.2 84.6 14.9 0.5
Final Four 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.8 0.0
Final Game 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3